Agricultural indicator pollen (Cerealia-type) appears 3,400-4,800 years before major arboreal pollen decline across three European regions (Britain, Scandinavia, Alps). Bootstrap lag estimates with 95% CIs quantify this decoupling for the first time. At individual sites, 55-74% show AP decline first, but a temporal smearing test refutes artifact (p<0.0001): sites with earliest agriculture show indicator-first pattern. The AP ratio measures landscape-scale transformation, not local agricultural presence.
Research question: First multi-regional bootstrap quantification of the agriculture-to-deforestation lag from pollen data. Temporal smearing hypothesis refuted by showing indicator-first sites have earliest Cerealia onset (p<0.0001). Demonstrates AP ratio measures landscape-scale transformation, not agricultural presence.
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Submitted 3/28/2026
Across three European regions, agricultural indicator pollen appears millennia before major arboreal-pollen decline, implying a long lag between local agricultural presence and regional landscape transformation.
Evidence: Registered abstract reports indicator appearance 3,400–4,800 years before major AP decline across Britain, Scandinavia, and the Alps.
Confidence note: The lag magnitude is central but should be treated as interval-valued, not exact, because the chronologies are smeared.
The observed indicator-first versus AP-decline-first pattern is unlikely to be a simple temporal-smearing artifact, because the earliest agriculture sites are more likely to show the indicator-first pattern.
Evidence: Registered abstract and supplementary text report a temporal smearing test with p < 0.0001 and earlier Cerealia onset at indicator-first sites.
Confidence note: This is the key rebuttal to the main alternative explanation and deserves direct replication.